Post by NoCanariesAllowed (Ipswich'02) on May 6, 2007 16:14:29 GMT -1
The Really Big NCA Prediction Thread
NoCanariesAllowed here, crap predictor extraordinaire!
Seeing as the Championship season has now drawn to a close, I thought it would be a good time to assess my predictions from earlier in the season. For some stupid reason, there have been three occasions this season where I have made my predictions for where everyone is going to finish; they vary immensely and have all done pretty badly...
PREDICTIONS FROM AUGUST 2006 - PRE-SEASON (not posted on this board)
P Team
CHAMPIONSHIP
1 Birmingham
2 Southampton
3 West Brom
4 Leeds
5 Norwich
6 Coventry
7 Crystal Palace
8 Wolves
9 Leicester
10 Sunderland
-----
12 Ipswich
Well it's quite clear from this that there was a bit of pre-season optimism going on here. About a month ago, Ipswich looked like they might have put the form together to finish 12th before the loss to Sheffield Wednesday. But there are some BIG mistakes in this - Southampton only made the playoffs and were certainly nowhere near automatic promotion. LEEDS FOURTH?! I suppose it's what would've seemed realistic back in August having seen Leeds just miss out on promotion the previous season, but now it looks ridiculous. NORWICH FIFTH?!!! Call me a traitor, but I really thought they'd do better than us! Lol! Back in pre-season, I thought that Coventry were putting together a promotion chasing side, but the decision to sell Gary McSheffrey killed that one off. Palace didn't do that well, Wolves did a bit better. 9th is where Leicester could've finished had it not been for the perpetual underachievement of Rob Kelly's side, and as for Sunderland finishing 10th, it looked realistic back in January, but you've got to admit that Roy Keane did one hell of a job as they came out of nowhere to take the title. Well done, Black Cats.
PREDICTIONS FROM DECEMBER 2006 - THE NCA 'AVERAGES' METHOD
P Team W D L F A Pts
CHAMPIONSHIP
1 Birmingham 46 26 10 10 71 46 88
2 Cardiff 46 24 11 11 68 44 83
---------------------------------------------
? Ipswich 46 15 10 21 68 71 55
? Leicester 46 11 15 21 44 61 -17 48
LEADING GOALSCORERS
CHAMPIONSHIP
Rasiak 28
Earnshaw 26
------------------
Lee 19
I think we can safely say that the NCA 'Averages' Prediction Method... is a pile of bollocks. The idea of this method was to take the team's form from the first half of the season and apply it to the second half to see how they might finish. This idea is of course fundamentally flawed because any team's form can fluctuate dramatically, although it has brought out some accurate predictions in the past. On this occasion however, we can clearly see that Cardiff, to be frank, completely fucked it up in the second half of the season, therefore the prediction is wrong. Thankfully though, one must say that Ipswich's form in the last quarter of the season resembled that of playoff and promotion chasing sides (we averaged nearly 2pts per game for the last 2 months; if only we could do that throughout the season, we'd finish with nearly 92pts!). Because of this late turnaround, Town did much better than this method suggested. I also posted Leicester's predicted stats in my first attempt to convince Foxes fans that Leicester weren't going down - if they had finished with 48pts, they would have been much closer to relegation than they actually ended up.
And the leading goalscorers? Well seeing as Rasiak and Earnshaw were top dogs at Christmas, I presumed it'd stay the same, but Earnshaw's injury and the emergence of Jamie Cureton made sure that wasn't the case. One has to say however that the prediction for Alan Lee, though optimistic at the time, wasn't far off in the end!
PREDICTIONS FROM APRIL 2007 - BBC CHAMPIONSHIP PREDICTOR
My second attempt to convince Leicester fans that their side wasn't going down, even though at this point they were only 2pts clear. Unsurprisingly these predictions are by far the most accurate, but although Town finished with more points than predicted here, the performance of the teams above them meant we couldn't get as high as 13th. Rather amusingly, even this close to the end of the season, I still got the playoffs completely wrong!
So, it appears I'm very very VERY bad at predicting final positions in this division - either that or when the pundits say that the Championship is an incredibly unpredictable division, they're not wrong...
With this season out of the way then, it's time for me to make an arse of myself again as I look ahead to next season. Where are Ipswich going to finish NEXT season? It's a terrible time to be making such predictions seeing as anything could happen in the next 12 months. Jim Magilton could end up buggering off to Northern Ireland only for Sam Allardyce to take over, Ipswich could end up missing out on Francis Jeffers only to somehow end up signing Henri Camara, David Sheepshanks could sell the club to an oil baron or alternatively the club could hit financial ruin, Delia Smith could change her allegiance... >shudder<... who knows?!!!
Right here and now, in the belief that the following things will happen:
...we might shock a few people and make the playoffs!!!!!!
Lol!
My three dark horses for promotion next season: Ipswich, Leicester and Sheffield Wednesday...
NoCanariesAllowed here, crap predictor extraordinaire!
Seeing as the Championship season has now drawn to a close, I thought it would be a good time to assess my predictions from earlier in the season. For some stupid reason, there have been three occasions this season where I have made my predictions for where everyone is going to finish; they vary immensely and have all done pretty badly...
PREDICTIONS FROM AUGUST 2006 - PRE-SEASON (not posted on this board)
P Team
CHAMPIONSHIP
1 Birmingham
2 Southampton
3 West Brom
4 Leeds
5 Norwich
6 Coventry
7 Crystal Palace
8 Wolves
9 Leicester
10 Sunderland
-----
12 Ipswich
Well it's quite clear from this that there was a bit of pre-season optimism going on here. About a month ago, Ipswich looked like they might have put the form together to finish 12th before the loss to Sheffield Wednesday. But there are some BIG mistakes in this - Southampton only made the playoffs and were certainly nowhere near automatic promotion. LEEDS FOURTH?! I suppose it's what would've seemed realistic back in August having seen Leeds just miss out on promotion the previous season, but now it looks ridiculous. NORWICH FIFTH?!!! Call me a traitor, but I really thought they'd do better than us! Lol! Back in pre-season, I thought that Coventry were putting together a promotion chasing side, but the decision to sell Gary McSheffrey killed that one off. Palace didn't do that well, Wolves did a bit better. 9th is where Leicester could've finished had it not been for the perpetual underachievement of Rob Kelly's side, and as for Sunderland finishing 10th, it looked realistic back in January, but you've got to admit that Roy Keane did one hell of a job as they came out of nowhere to take the title. Well done, Black Cats.
PREDICTIONS FROM DECEMBER 2006 - THE NCA 'AVERAGES' METHOD
ncadc2004 said:
P Team W D L F A Pts
CHAMPIONSHIP
1 Birmingham 46 26 10 10 71 46 88
2 Cardiff 46 24 11 11 68 44 83
---------------------------------------------
? Ipswich 46 15 10 21 68 71 55
? Leicester 46 11 15 21 44 61 -17 48
LEADING GOALSCORERS
CHAMPIONSHIP
Rasiak 28
Earnshaw 26
------------------
Lee 19
I think we can safely say that the NCA 'Averages' Prediction Method... is a pile of bollocks. The idea of this method was to take the team's form from the first half of the season and apply it to the second half to see how they might finish. This idea is of course fundamentally flawed because any team's form can fluctuate dramatically, although it has brought out some accurate predictions in the past. On this occasion however, we can clearly see that Cardiff, to be frank, completely fucked it up in the second half of the season, therefore the prediction is wrong. Thankfully though, one must say that Ipswich's form in the last quarter of the season resembled that of playoff and promotion chasing sides (we averaged nearly 2pts per game for the last 2 months; if only we could do that throughout the season, we'd finish with nearly 92pts!). Because of this late turnaround, Town did much better than this method suggested. I also posted Leicester's predicted stats in my first attempt to convince Foxes fans that Leicester weren't going down - if they had finished with 48pts, they would have been much closer to relegation than they actually ended up.
And the leading goalscorers? Well seeing as Rasiak and Earnshaw were top dogs at Christmas, I presumed it'd stay the same, but Earnshaw's injury and the emergence of Jamie Cureton made sure that wasn't the case. One has to say however that the prediction for Alan Lee, though optimistic at the time, wasn't far off in the end!
PREDICTIONS FROM APRIL 2007 - BBC CHAMPIONSHIP PREDICTOR
ncadc2004 said:
My second attempt to convince Leicester fans that their side wasn't going down, even though at this point they were only 2pts clear. Unsurprisingly these predictions are by far the most accurate, but although Town finished with more points than predicted here, the performance of the teams above them meant we couldn't get as high as 13th. Rather amusingly, even this close to the end of the season, I still got the playoffs completely wrong!
So, it appears I'm very very VERY bad at predicting final positions in this division - either that or when the pundits say that the Championship is an incredibly unpredictable division, they're not wrong...
With this season out of the way then, it's time for me to make an arse of myself again as I look ahead to next season. Where are Ipswich going to finish NEXT season? It's a terrible time to be making such predictions seeing as anything could happen in the next 12 months. Jim Magilton could end up buggering off to Northern Ireland only for Sam Allardyce to take over, Ipswich could end up missing out on Francis Jeffers only to somehow end up signing Henri Camara, David Sheepshanks could sell the club to an oil baron or alternatively the club could hit financial ruin, Delia Smith could change her allegiance... >shudder<... who knows?!!!
Right here and now, in the belief that the following things will happen:
|
...we might shock a few people and make the playoffs!!!!!!
Lol!
My three dark horses for promotion next season: Ipswich, Leicester and Sheffield Wednesday...
)
) so if we are to be promoted as many of us believe we could be, then that is not the way to go about it ( 
sorry mate it was me 
